000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150244
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
 
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF PAUL HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE LAST FEW PASSES REVEALING A NEARLY CLOSED
EYEWALL.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT
APPEAR QUITE AS WELL STRUCTURED...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED TO T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.  BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  

PAUL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-28C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  GIVEN THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THAT
TIME.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING ON
THIS CYCLE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE...
AND THE PEAK INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE ICON
CONSENSUS.  STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...AND PAUL IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WITH
THE ADDED EFFECT OF COOLER SSTS...PAUL COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.

PAUL IS ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE PAUL
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
AFTER THAT TIME...PAUL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GETS
FLUNG AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD
LIKELY REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 15.8N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 17.2N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 19.6N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 22.1N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 24.2N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 27.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 29.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG