000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142033
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
 
PAUL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS HAVE GAINED
CURVATURE...AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 3.5/55 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 50
KT.  THIS INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SATCON DATA FROM UW-CIMSS. 

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
PAUL REMAINS OVER WATERS THAT ARE RELATIVELY WARM AND IN A
CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL MOVING INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE LESS CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH COOLER WATER ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK SHOULD CAUSE
PAUL TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.

PAUL REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO
THE RIGHT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. A NORTHWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 15.4N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.4N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 18.4N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 26.5N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 29.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI