000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141438 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CURVED BAND WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ANALYSES INDICATE THAT PAUL IS TITLED WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX BECOMING BETTER VERTICALLY ALIGNED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE...AND BECAUSE PAUL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. BY LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE TRACK. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND PAUL IS NOW FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE FEATURES THAT ARE STEERING PAUL ARE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING PAUL TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE WEAKENING STORM IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 14.8N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI