000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140258
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012
 
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PAUL IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED RATHER
QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  A TIGHTLY CURVED AND COLD CONVECTIVE BAND ON
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED. 
BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 45 KT...A CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0...WHILE A 2215Z AMSU INTENSITY ANALYSIS
FROM CIMSS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KT.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11...AS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WAS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
STORM.  PAUL IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  A DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE RIDGE AND THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH.  THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO COME OVER OR
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.  BY DAY FIVE...THE
WEAKENING REMNANT LOW OF PAUL IS PROJECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF MODEL.

PAUL IS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF WARM
28C WATERS...VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE HOSTILE.  BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED SHEAR...SOMEWHAT COOLER SSTS...AND A MUCH
DRIER ATMOSPHERE.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE GFDL DYNAMICAL MODEL...AND IT
IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS A 66% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 30 KT
INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE
INNER CORE DEVELOPS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 14.2N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 14.6N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 15.8N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 17.7N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 24.6N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 27.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER LAND
120H  19/0000Z 29.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI