000
WTPZ41 KNHC 132036
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE...MAKING THE SYSTEM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC...WHICH SHOWED RELIABLE WIND
VECTORS AROUND 30 KT.
 
PAUL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
CHANGE IN HEADING...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN WHERE THE
TURN TAKES PLACE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCE AND TV15...BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA
PENNISULA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PAUL
TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW PAUL LOSING STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO BAJA. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL AIDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 14.0N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 14.1N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 14.9N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.4N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.2N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 23.0N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 26.5N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI