000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170243
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION OF KRISTY...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING
EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT
30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  KRISTY SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12H OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN OVER COLD WATERS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6...ALTHOUGH A SHORTER TERM
MOTION IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION TURNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST  
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED SOLELY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT IS A BIT WEST OF THAT AID.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 25.3N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 25.9N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE