000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151449
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
 
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A
WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND BANDING
FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND IT WILL BE
HARD TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER WITH SUCH A COOL
OCEAN BENEATH. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR EARLIER. 

KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SHALLOW LOW
LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF BUT AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 22.4N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 23.3N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 25.0N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA