000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150832
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
 
KRISTY HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE STORM. DESPITE HAVING REACHED SUB-26C WATERS...THE CYCLONE MAY
BE HOLDING ITS OWN PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF A DECREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI- NUMBERS...AS WELL
AS THE LATEST ADT CI VALUES...IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 40 KT. THE CIRCULATION OF KRISTY
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT
MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND INGESTS A DRIER...STABLE AIR MASS.
REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS IVCN AND ICON.
 
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08.  GUIDED BY THE FLOW AROUND A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...KRISTY SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KRISTY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EASTWARD PRIOR TO
DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST DIFFERS LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 21.8N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 22.6N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 23.8N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 24.8N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 25.7N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 27.2N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN