000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150242
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012
 
THE CLOUD TOPS OF KRISTY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN
A SMALL BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT 40 OR 45 KT...AND THE LOWER VALUE IS CHOSEN AS
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED BASED ON THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KRISTY MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 36H.

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KRISTY HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED ARE 
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT
LOW...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW EASTWARD
DRIFT WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 24H...BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 21.2N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 22.0N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 24.2N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 25.1N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z 26.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE