000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142031
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012
 
KRISTY IS RESILIENT...AND DESPITE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEING
OVER COOL WATERS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT DETERIORATED YET. A
COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER...AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AND INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE ENTIRE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER MUCH
LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO BE A
REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EARLIER.

MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE TO KEEP KRISTY ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...KRISTY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND WILL BE STEERED BY A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND MOST LIKELY...THE REMANT LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MEANDER NORTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST MODELS AND BECOME STEERED BY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 20.6N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 21.1N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 22.3N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 23.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z 27.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA