000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140238
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
KRISTY HAS BEEN NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
OR BRIEFLY EXPOSED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0000 UTC
WERE A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
REFORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL
REMAIN 45 KT.  A SLOW WEAKENING OF KRISTY SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO
DECREASING SSTS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WHILE THE
SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN A DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE WILL ALREADY BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT.  THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BASICALLY BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING GRADUAL
WEAKENING...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM MODEL.  KRISTY
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 OR 3 DAYS DUE TO COLD WATER.

THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING 295/5. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS KRISTY IS STEERED AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A
FEW DAYS. ONLY A SMALL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST
WAS MADE FOR THE FIRST 48 H TO COME CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST AS IT BECOME STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AT DAYS
4-5...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF KRISTY AT THAT
POINT. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 19.7N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.2N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 21.2N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 22.4N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 23.5N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 25.3N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE