000
WTPZ41 KNHC 132037
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012
 
THE CENTER OF KRISTY HAS BECOME EXPOSED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...
SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE
CENTER OF KRISTY CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOWARD COLDER WATER.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT KRISTY WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE THE SHEAR
CONTINUES...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING
BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS.

THE MOTION REMAINS 295/9 KT...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER KRISTY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD STOP
KRISTY FROM MOVING IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION...WITH THE REMNANT LOW
LIKELY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TAKING A COURSE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE BAJA COAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ONLY AT 96 AND 120
HOURS WHEN KRISTY IS A REMNANT LOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 19.3N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.8N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 20.5N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 21.8N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 22.9N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 26.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 27.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG