000
WTPZ41 KNHC 122031
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT
RETRIEVALS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  KRISTY ONLY
HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR BEFORE THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THESE TWO DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL MODEL LGEM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KRISTY
SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.
 
THE CENTER BECAME MORE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
TODAY...AND IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. KRISTY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ACTUALLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
SINCE THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RATHER
WIDE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE.  THE NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT
NORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION...BUT IN
GENERAL IS BIASED TOWARD THE ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 18.2N 106.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/1800Z 26.0N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA