000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121441
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012
 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS
AGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES.

THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE
IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. 
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA