000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180235
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
 
FABIO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS OWING TO A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOPS TO -50C LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. FABIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH
A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FABIO IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE
MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND INTO A STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
FABIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.

ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS...THE DECOUPLED REMNANT MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 25.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 26.4N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1200Z 27.6N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART