000
WTPZ41 KNHC 171433
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
 
FABIO IS SPINNING DOWN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 22C. ONLY
A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION IS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL...AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED TO 40 KT. THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS APPEAR TO BE
DECOUPLING DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER WATERS AHEAD AND A DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REMNANT LOW LOSING ITS
IDENTITY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 23.6N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 25.2N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 26.5N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z 27.6N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI