000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170832
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
 
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FABIO. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS.  BECAUSE FABIO IS
ALREADY MOVING OVER 22C WATERS...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 TO
36 HOURS...OR SOONER.
 
FABIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. BY THEN...FABIO WILL BE A REMNANT LOW
AND PROBABLY MOVES ERRATICALLY EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 21.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 24.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 25.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 26.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA