000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170234
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FABIO HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE CLOUD STRUCTURE STEADILY DEGENERATES DUE
TO THE CYCLONE INGESTING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND ALSO
MOVES OVER SUB-22C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A UW-CIMSS ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.6/57 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07 KT. FABIO HAS MADE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST ALONG 20N
LATITUDE. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED
AFTER THAT AND CONTINUING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

FABIO WILL CONTINUE TO INGEST DRIER AND INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 20C BY 24 HOURS OR SO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 20.3N 120.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 21.4N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 23.0N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 24.3N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART