000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162034
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
 
FABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL OF FABIO HAS
ERODED...BUT A PERSISTENT CURVED BAND EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE OF 60 KT. THIS MAKES FABIO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE
IS INGESTING DRIER AIR TO ITS WEST AS SEEN IN VISIBLE AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS STABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH EVEN
COOLER WATER AHEAD SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS
AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8
KT. A CONTINUED TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 1718 UTC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 19.7N 120.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 22.4N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 23.9N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 25.1N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z 26.8N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI