000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160835
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012

THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 70
KT REPRESENTS A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FABIO IS PROJECTED TO REACH OCEAN
WATERS COOLER THAN 29 DEG C WITHIN LESS THAN 48 HOURS...AND AS A
RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 2...AND THIS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LGEM GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE VERY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...FABIO COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN
HERE.
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM
MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FABIO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE BREAK.  LATER...THE CYCLONE
COULD SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
EFFECT OF THE TROUGH.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TOP PORTION OF
THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 
THIS WOULD LEAVE THE REMAINING REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT LOSES ITS
IDENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION.

SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO SHOULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN A FEW
DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 18.3N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.3N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 23.0N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH