000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152032
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
 
FABIO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW BREAKS OR DRY
SLOTS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE OF 85 KT. THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FABIO MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND
BRINGS FABIO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 WHEN IT
WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FABIO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 17.4N 118.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 18.0N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 19.0N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 20.2N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 24.4N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI