000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151436
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
 
FABIO HAS NOT YET BEGUN TO WEAKEN.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS RATHER
SYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS OF -50
TO -60 DEGREES CELSIUS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AND A RECENT
CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED AT 90 KT.  FABIO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.  FABIO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FABIO IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA PRODUCES A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE 
PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD.
THE HWRF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. 
FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE SLOWER ECMWF.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 16.9N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 17.4N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 18.3N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 19.4N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 20.6N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z 25.2N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z 26.0N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN