000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150833
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
 
FABIO IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN 
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -50 C OR COLDER.  USING DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS
KEPT AT 90 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THIS
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER...AS IT WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.  FABIO SHOULD
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 1-2 DAYS AND DEGENERATE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...OR SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION.

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS TAKING PLACE...AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE 285/8.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING NEAR
AND OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CREATE A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 120W LONGITUDE.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD WITH
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED AS IT NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
FAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 16.6N 116.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 17.0N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 17.8N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 18.8N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 22.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 25.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z 26.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH