000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150233 TCDEP1 HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012 FABIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE RELEASE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISORY AROUND 0000 UTC. THE 20 N MI EYE REMAINS CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 90 KT...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT FABIO IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AS THE EYE IS CLOSE TO THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK STEADILY DECREASE BEYOND THAT TIME. THESE UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS AHEAD OF FABIO SHOULD CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN IT IS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 20C AND ENCOUNTERS AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH LGEM. FABIO IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING HANGS ON TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.4N 115.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI