000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142036 TCDEP1 HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012 FABIO STILL HAS A RAGGED EYE...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STEADY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 80 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A TEMPORARY WESTWARD MOTION...OR 280/9 KT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FABIO SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. WHEN FABIO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 DAYS...ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE IMPEDED BY NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST HEDGES ON THE SIDE OF THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AT THAT TIME. THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26-27C WATER...AND EVEN COLDER WATER LOOMS AHEAD. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEAR FABIO...THE HURRICANE MAY ACTUALLY REACH COOLER WATERS SOONER THAN EARLIER FORECAST GIVEN ITS RECENT WESTWARD MOTION. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...AND FABIO COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY IN WINDS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE IN ALMOST PERFECT AGREEMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 16.2N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG