000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141433
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
 
FABIO IS DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND RECENT
AMSU DATA INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLOSED
EYEWALL.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KT BASED
ON DVORAK NUMBERS AND ESTIMATES OF 76 AND 80 KT FROM THE AMSU DATA.
THE IMPACTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON FABIO SHOULD LESSEN AFTER
ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT BY THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER OVER SUB-26C WATER.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVER THE COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY.  THE CYCLONE COULD THEN
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HEADING
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE FABIO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST
COAST SHOULD PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 2...AT WHICH TIME
FABIO WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.  THERE
IS SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF.
THE LATTER SHOWS A SHARPER AND SLOWER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  BUT
ALL IN ALL...THE MODELS ARE GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT...AND THE
NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 16.2N 114.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 16.8N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 17.3N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 18.2N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG