000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140840 TCDEP1 HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH FABIO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE EARLIER EYE ATTEMPT ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY WAS UNSUCCESSFUL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SO 80 KT REMAINS THE CURRENT WIND SPEED. FABIO HAS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW LEFT TO STRENGTHEN WITH COOLER WATERS ON THE HORIZON FOR TOMORROW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE NEAR-TERM. A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF FABIO BY MONDAY. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO COLD WATERS AROUND 20C. A TIMELY TRMM IMAGE FROM 0615 UTC WAS A GREAT HELP WITH THE INITIAL POSITIONING...RESULTING IN A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9. THIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO A DEEP TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...CAUSING FABIO TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST AFTER DAY 3 BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 16.0N 113.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE