000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140239
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
INFRARED BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT AND A 2220 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE PASS
SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL OF -80 TO -90C.
JUST RECENTLY...AN OFF-WHITE RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...SINCE
THE 75 KT ESTIMATE EARLIER SUPPORTED BY THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AND UW-CIMSS ADT DID NOT INCLUDE THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF THE
RAGGED EYE.  FABIO IS APPARENTLY FENDING-OFF THE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR THIS EVENING BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN.  THE
SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES THAT THE PROBABILITY FABIO WILL UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS INCREASED FROM 2 TO 17 PERCENT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSIDERS THIS POSSIBILITY AND SHOWS AN INCREASE
TO 95 KT IN 12 HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FABIO PEAKING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
DECREASING SSTS AND STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  FABIO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9 KT.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO STEER FABIO IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...CAUSING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWING FABIO TO ULTIMATELY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND DAY 4.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE TVCE
CONSENSUS MODEL...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS-HYBRID. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 15.7N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.1N 113.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.8N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS