000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132043 TCDEP1 HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012 RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF FABIO IS DISPLACED ABOUT 20 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...FABIO HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO GAIN STRENGTH. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS AROUND 75 KT. IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY YIELDED AN ESTIMATE OF 72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING FABIO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TOO MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR AND FABIO WILL STILL BE OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL ONLY 2 PERCENT...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FABIO SHOULD MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND ONLY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. FABIO IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO UNTIL THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SEVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 28N. AT THAT POINT...FABIO SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FABIO HAS BECOME A MORE SYMMETRIC CYCLONE...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1642 UTC ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG