000
WTPZ41 KNHC 131435
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS DATA INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS DEVELOPED A
CLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK ESTIMATES
AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED AT T3.0...OR 55 KT...AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT JUMPED TO ABOUT 75 KT WHEN AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE
MICROWAVE DATA WAS APPLIED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT
60 KT FOR NOW...AND FABIO APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
HURRICANE.
 
THE MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO MORE ACCURATELY LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND FABIO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.
A DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
BEGINNING TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO...
AND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE OREGON COAST SHOULD
HELP TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FABIO WILL
ULTIMATELY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH BY DAY 5.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING FABIO...BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX FOR A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS ONLY AT 2 PERCENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE NOT SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE FABIO REACHES COLDER WATER
IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 15.0N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 15.6N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 16.8N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 18.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG