000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130848
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
FABIO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CDO FEATURE PRESENT ALONG
WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE
BOTH 55 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CDO...LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.   GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT FABIO WILL BECOME NO MORE THAN A
LOW-END HURRICANE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED
SHEAR.  WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
COOLER WATERS...ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MIGHT DECREASE AROUND THAT
TIME TO MODERATE THE EFFECT OF THE SSTS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...RESULTING
IN AN INTENSITY PREDICTION THAT ENDS UP A LITTLE LOWER BEYOND 36
HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD STEER FABIO TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A RATHER DEEP TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH CAUSES THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN.  FABIO SHOULD RESPOND
BY GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT
THERE ARE SOME LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR.  
THE BULK OF THE COMPUTER MODEL TRACKS HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED TO THE
LEFT...DELAYING THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST
SHIFTS WESTWARD AS WELL...AND LIES NEAR A BLEND OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO ASCAT DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 14.2N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 14.8N 110.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 15.4N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 15.8N 113.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 16.0N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 17.1N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 19.3N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 22.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE