000
WTPZ41 KNHC 122040
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
 
FABIO CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THE BAND IS
LONG ENOUGH FOR TAFB AND SAB TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0.
THE WINDS ARE THEREFORE RAISED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A MOTION OF
290/9 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS THE SAME AS EARLIER
TODAY...WITH FABIO EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE MODEL
ENVELOPE IS GENERALLY BOUNDED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TO THE EAST AND
THE GFS AND HWRF FARTHER WEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE.  CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS
HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...
WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
FABIO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING MUCH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED
TO OCCUR...HOWEVER...AND FABIO COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS A
TIGHT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARD COLDER WATER IN ABOUT
3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT
THE UPPER BOUND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 14.2N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 14.9N 109.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 15.6N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 16.4N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG