000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121439
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
 
THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND AN
1121 UTC SSMI PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING A NEARLY
CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD RING UNDERNEATH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THAT BASIS.

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS STEERING FABIO ON A WESTWARD
COURSE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8 KT.  THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN HALF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COUPLE OF CUT-OFF LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST. 
UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DANIEL AND EMILIA...FABIO SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY
DAY 5...INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST EXHIBITS
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BECOME IDEAL FOR AN
INTENSE STORM...BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.  BASED ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...FABIO SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...AND BE OVER 22-23C WATER BY DAY 5...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LONGER-RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST UNDER THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 13.6N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 14.1N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 15.0N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 16.0N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 21.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG