000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180831
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012
 
DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR...ALETTA
HAS SURVIVED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND IN FACT...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT
0600Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY
BECAUSE SINCE THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION...CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH.  THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...SO I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR SOONER AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT
3 KNOTS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY DIVERGENT...PROBABLY MEANING
THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
THAT ALETTA OR ITS REMANTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A THE LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WHICH ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF ALETTA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 13.8N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 14.0N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 14.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1800Z 14.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z 13.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z 12.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA