000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172048
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
 
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN RAGGED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF ALETTA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION CAN
PERSIST IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE ALETTA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 
20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS
SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR
LESS.  FINAL DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 72-96 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.
 
ALETTA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/5.  ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
OR SOUTH AS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING
MECHANISM.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 13.4N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 13.8N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 14.0N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1800Z 13.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z 12.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN