000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170231
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
 
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. 
A STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER A SMALL
AREA JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON DVORAK RULES AND THE ASCAT PASS
FROM EARLIER TODAY...WHICH INDICATED THAT ALETTA WAS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN IT LOOKED.  DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO
TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ALETTA SHOULD WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MOST RECENT LGEM RUN AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND
SPEED FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD...280/8...FOR THE TIME BEING.  A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  AFTERWARDS...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LIKELY TO CARRY ALETTA...OR ITS
REMNANT...EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
IDENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 11.5N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH