000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150233
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FARTHER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS MODEST
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  BASED
ON THE MODEL PREDICTIONS...ALETTA HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS WITHIN
WHICH TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
BEGINS TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  LGEM INDICATES DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD....AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.

BASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES...INCLUDING ONE FROM A RECENT SSMIS
OVERPASS...ALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER CLIP OR
280/10.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS PREDICTIONS...AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 10.5N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 10.8N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 11.1N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 11.4N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 11.7N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 12.0N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH