000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS PERSISTED AND EXPANDED... WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN RECENT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NAMED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO INTENSIFY. AFTER THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/07. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER WEAKENING COMMENCES...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DECREASE... WITH THE GFS HINTING THAT THE WEAKENED CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD INTO AN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE THIS WEEK. THE OFFICIAL NHC IS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 10.0N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 10.3N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 10.7N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 11.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 11.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 11.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 12.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN