000
WTPZ41 KNHC 060844
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLOW STRENGTHENING.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THEREFORE...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD TURN IS INDICATED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS COMBINES THIS
CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E AND MOVES THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 11.9N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 13.0N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 14.0N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 16.0N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA