000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160834
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011
 

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BLOSSOMED AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT DID 12 HOURS
AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PARTIALLY SUPPORT MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE CENTER TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IF AT ALL...TO INCREASE
THE WINDS. SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE
SYSTEM...ONLY A SMALL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER COLD WATERS AND WEAKENS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BY THE
OTHER GUIDANCE. 

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
TRACKS ARE REALLY FANNING OUT AFTER TWO DAYS MAKING THE FORECAST
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...BY THEN THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE READY TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 12.4N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 12.4N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 12.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 12.5N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 13.0N 138.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 14.0N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA