000
WTPZ41 KNHC 112051
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011
 
ADRIAN IS WEAKENING AS FAST AS IT INTENSIFIED...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW
PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RAPIDLY DECAYING
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE ADRIAN IS ALREADY AFFECTED BY STRONG
SHEAR...SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR...AND MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS...IT COULD EASILY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR
SOONER. SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD
REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER BETWEEN NOW AND DISSIPATION. 

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. 
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN TWO
DAYS...BUT BY THEN ADRIAN SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 15.8N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/1800Z 18.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA