000
WTPZ41 KNHC 071432
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011
 
THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS NOW DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF
THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
BASED ON THESE DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.
 
THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LESS THAN
10 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 C SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...WHICH
IS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO A
HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.  BETWEEN 36 AND 96 HOURS...A GRADUAL BEND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.  BY DAY 5...THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DUE TO
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS...WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
APPEAR UNREALISTIC AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 11.6N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 11.9N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 12.5N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 13.2N 101.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 14.0N 101.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 15.1N 103.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI