000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040249
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112010
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT A CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED AND NOW WRAPS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER.  MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL ALSO SHOWS THIS
STRUCTURE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC WERE T2.0/30 KT AND
T1.5/25 KT...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CONTRIBUTING TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/5.
THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF THE CENTER COULD BE DICTATED BY LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE COAST OR ONSHORE WITHIN 12 HOURS.  AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...WHICH ALSO BRINGS THE
CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT THEN SHOWS IT
PARALLELING THE SHORE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE FORMER SCENARIO AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY...THE DEPRESSION COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM.  THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE
DEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 15.5N  95.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N  95.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 16.8N  96.1W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN