000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192039
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE CIRRUS
CANOPY. IN FACT...THE CIRCULATION MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS PUSHED THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 KT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED AT MAZATLAN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 015/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TAKES THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS AND SHOWS
DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE
SOONER IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
NO LONGER PRESENT.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE
MEXICAN COAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 22.3N 106.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.6N 106.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG