000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110249 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008 ODILE HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C THIS EVENING...WITH A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWING THAT THE CLUSTER IS SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/11...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A LITTLE FASTER. ODILE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF ODILE IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE NORBERT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ODILE TO MAKE A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN...IF IT DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE FIRST. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND HWRF FAVOR THE LANDFALL SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP ODILE OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD. INDEED...THE ECMWF SHOWS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MOTION VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR...AND IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. IF ODILE DOESN'T DISSIPATE OVER LAND...IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BETWEEN 24-72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC NEAR ODILE AFTER 72 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS. PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. AS ODILE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...WHILE THE GFDL DOES NOT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS COMPROMISES WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INCREASING SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ODILE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE IS AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AFTER 72 HR...IT MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 15.9N 99.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 16.6N 100.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.3N 102.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.5N 103.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.5N 104.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 106.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 107.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN