000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008 ODILE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS A SMALL CDO ALONG WITH A PRIMARY BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF AT LEAST 45 KT...AND THIS IS CONSERVATIVELY USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER ODILE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOREOVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON BE PASSING OVER THE WAKE OF NORBERT...WHICH CONTAINS COOLER WATER CAUSED BY UPWELLING AND MIXING. THEREFORE...NOTWITHSTANDING THE CURRENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION...ODILE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH BEYOND THE MINIMAL HURRICANE STAGE. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LATEST FIXES LEAD TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF 280/11. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS KEEPS THE CENTER FAIRLY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE STORM BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE...THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR MEXICO IS DIMINISHING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 12.7N 94.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 13.0N 95.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.8N 97.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.7N 99.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 106.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH