000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090232 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 800 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS A 30 KT SHIP REPORT NEAR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREEING THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MOVE THE SYSTEM VERY LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST TRACKS PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE HWRF SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN THE GFDL. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY HWRF AND THE MORE NORTHERLY GFS/ECMWF. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 53 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HR. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HWRF IS THE ONLY MODEL CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE....AND THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE LESS AGGRESSIVE MODELS. THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP 45 KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE UKMET SHOWS WEAKER EASTERLIES...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT SHOW AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE GFDL...WHICH CALLS FOR DISSIPATION. THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 12.2N 91.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 12.7N 93.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 13.3N 94.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 13.9N 95.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 14.4N 97.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 15.5N 100.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN