000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008 THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING EVIDENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN LINE WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE...OF COURSE...QUITE WARM. HOWEVER THE LACK OF INNER CORE ORGANIZATION AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT A LOT OF STRENGTHENING SUGGESTS THAT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATTER MODEL SUGGESTS INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD HALT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS AFTER DAY 3. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THE SYSTEM WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD... IT HAS SINCE LOOPED BACK TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. CURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 280/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO TROUGHS OR OTHER OBVIOUS STEERING MECHANISMS TO BRING THE CENTER ASHORE ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...A FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK PARALLELING...BUT NOT FAR OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE. THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 12.1N 90.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 12.5N 92.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 13.1N 93.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 13.7N 95.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 14.3N 96.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 15.5N 98.8W 60 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 16.5N 101.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH