000
WTPZ41 KNHC 260256
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF
EAST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND...THEREFORE...
JULIO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
JULIO HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
DECOUPLING AND IT IS NO LONGER A DEEP SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
BROADER CYCLONIC GYRE OF A THERMAL LOW OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT
STEERING CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
TERRAIN INTERACTION...AND JULIO SHOULD STEADILY SPIN DOWN AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM JULIO WILL STILL CREATE A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND
THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER
THAT REGION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 28.0N 112.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.8N 112.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.4N 113.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 29.8N 113.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 29.9N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME