000
WTPZ41 KNHC 242040
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008
 
THE CENTER OF JULIO HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER OF JULIO PASSED VERY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 19Z. A COUPLE OF UNOFFICIAL
REPORTING STATIONS HAVE REPORTED MINIMUM PRESSURES BETWEEN 1000 AND
1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE ACCURACY OF THESE MEASUREMENTS IS UNKNOWN.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. JULIO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.     

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE GFS...
UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL PREDICT THAT JULIO WILL SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.  HOWEVER... 
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A SLOW DOWN IN 2-3 DAYS AS JULIO
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
 
MOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 23.2N 110.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 24.4N 111.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 25.9N 111.9W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 27.4N 112.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 28.4N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN